The Collision Industry: Expansion, Market Shifts, and Emerging Trends
The collision repair industry underwent significant changes in 2024. Major consolidators continued expanding aggressively, interest rates influenced real estate dynamics, and technological advancements reshaped repair processes. After speaking with thousands of shop owners and operators across the nation, a few key trends stood out that are shaping the market.
The Growth of Corporate MSOs
The largest multi-shop operators (MSOs) have steadily expanded their market share, with significant year-over-year increases in both shop count and estimated revenue:
Caliber Collision:
±1,900 locations
$7.85 billion in estimated revenue
(7.78% growth)
Gerber/Boyd Group
±856 locations
$3.2 billion in estimated revenue
(7.21% growth)
Crash Champions
±656 locations
$2.6 billion in estimated revenue
(6.57% growth)
Classic Collision
±338 locations
$1.3 billion in estimated revenue
(22.76% growth)
Joe Hudson’s Collision Center
±255 locations
$660 million in estimated revenue
(24.10% growth)
Key Expansion Trends
- Classic Collision and Joe Hudson’s were the fastest-growing consolidators, each expanding by over 22% in 2024.
- The total shop count for the top five MSOs increased from 3,512 in 2023 to 3,842 in 2024, a 9.4% increase year-over-year.
- Private equity involvement continues to fuel acquisitions, allowing for rapid scaling in key markets.
- Growth is particularly strong in California, Florida, Texas, and the Southeast, where high vehicle density drives repair demand.
- Independent body shops face increasing pressure as MSOs leverage economies of scale and strengthen partnerships with insurers.
Investment Trends and Pricing Adjustments
The real estate market for collision centers experienced notable shifts in 2024. Rising interest rates pushed cap rates higher, with average increases ranging from 50–100 basis points compared to the prior year.
- Properties with long-term, absolute NNN leases continued to perform well, maintaining strong investor interest and competitive pricing.
- Older leases with a limited term remaining or NN+ structures saw softer demand, offering opportunities for yield-focused buyers.
- Despite these challenges, consolidators’ steady expansion and strong private equity interest have helped keep property values and deal pricing steady.
Private equity activity reached new heights in 2024:
- TPG Capital acquired Classic Collision for an estimated $2 billion.
- Crash Champions refinanced $1.9 billion in debt to fund continued growth.
Emerging Trends Impacting the Industry
Outside of consolidation and investment shifts, several other trends are shaping the collision repair landscape:
Technological Advancements
The rise of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and electric vehicles (EVs) is increasing repair complexity and costs, prompting MSOs to invest in specialized training and equipment.
Labor Shortages
A persistent shortage of skilled technicians is driving up wages and forcing operators to adopt more effective recruitment and retention strategies.
Operational Focus
As consolidators grow, many are directing resources toward their most profitable and highly-trafficked locations, which could lead to a re-evaluation of underperforming shops in the future.
What’s in Store for 2025?
Looking ahead, the collision repair market is poised for further evolution. Based on industry trends and feedback from owners and operators, the following is anticipated by the end of the year:
Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates relatively steady through the remainder of 2025, following a modest uptick in borrowing costs triggered by recent tariffs.
10-Year Treasury
The 10-year Treasury yield will stabilize between 4.00% and 4.25%, creating a more predictable investment environment, boosting investor confidence.
Cap Rates
Cap rates have largely stabilized in early 2025, following their rise in 2024. With interest rates holding steady and the “Big 5” consolidators continuing to expand, pricing expectations are beginning to align more closely between buyers and sellers.
Transaction Velocity
As capital markets stabilize, deal activity is expected to rise by 15%, as sellers adjust to current pricing trends and buyers take advantage of new opportunities.
These predictions are based on ongoing market shifts and feedback from clients across the country. Understanding these changes will be crucial for positioning properties and portfolios throughout 2025.
Opportunities Amid Growth
While the rapid expansion of corporate MSOs introduced new complexities, it also highlights the resilience and growth potential of the collision industry. The focus on newer, high-performing locations could create opportunities for buyers seeking properties with strong long-term fundamentals.
As transaction activity picks up in 2025, understanding lease structures, tenant strength, and regional performance will be critical for navigating the market. Whether a property owner looks to capitalize on these trends or an investor seeks prime locations, having a trusted advisor will be key.
