2026 Investor Survey: CRE Investor Sentiment and H2 2026 Outlook
The Matthews™ 2026 Investor Survey finds that commercial real estate investors are not waiting for a market reset. Although 67% of respondents believe CRE is overpriced, only 15% plan to tighten acquisition criteria, value-add is the leading strategy, and 69% expect transaction volume to hold steady or rise through the end of 2026. This report breaks down investor sentiment on pricing, cap rates, interest rates, buying strategy, sector performance, and seller intent for the second half of 2026.
What Is the Matthews™ 2026 Investor Survey?
Since 2020, Matthews™ has surveyed commercial real estate investors twice a year to track current sentiment. The 2026 Investor Outlook Survey, titled The Market Is Learning to Move Without a Reset, compares what investors say with insights from broader economic and market research, showing where sentiment and data align and where they diverge. It is designed to help buyers, sellers, and lenders make more grounded decisions in an uncertain market. Explore more research in our Matthews™ Market Insights library.
Key Findings From the 2026 Investor Survey
- 67% believe CRE is overpriced, including 24% who consider properties significantly overpriced.
- 15% expect to become more conservative with acquisition criteria; 20% expect to become more aggressive.
- 35% say value-add acquisitions are their top priority for the rest of 2026.
- 69% expect transaction volume to remain stable or increase.
- 93% expect cap rates to remain stable or expand; only 7% expect compression.
- 48% name the bid-ask spread or cost of debt as the main constraint on investment activity.
- 51% expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by year-end 2026, versus 16% who expect a cut.
- 16% think H2 2026 is the best time to buy; 49% point to 2027 and 28% are unsure.
Do Investors Think Commercial Real Estate Is Overpriced?
Yes. About 67% of investors say commercial real estate is at least somewhat overpriced, including 24% who say significantly overpriced. Only 20% view pricing as fair, and about 13% see properties as underpriced.
Why Overpricing Concerns Are Not Slowing Acquisitions
Caution is not turning into a broad pullback. While 65% plan to keep acquisition criteria unchanged and 20% expect to become more aggressive, just 15% expect to tighten. Rather than waiting for a larger pricing reset, most investors are accepting the current environment and becoming more selective about where opportunities still justify the price.
Which Investment Strategy Are CRE Investors Prioritizing in 2026?
Value-add is the preferred strategy, chosen by 39% of respondents, ahead of opportunistic (25%), core (15%), and core-plus (12%). For the remainder of 2026, about 35% rank acquiring value-add assets as their top priority, nearly twice the share targeting stabilized assets (19%). This reverses 2025, when opportunistic strategies outpaced value-add.
Where Value-Add Is Strongest
Preference is most pronounced among private equity firms and multifamily investors, and in portfolios valued between $10 million and $50 million. Private individuals and family offices still lean toward opportunistic investments.
What Is Limiting Commercial Real Estate Investment Today?
The bid-ask spread is the top constraint at 25.5%, followed by the cost of debt (21.3%) and a lack of suitable properties (17.0%). Only about 6% cite limited availability of financing, which suggests capital is available but investors remain disciplined on price and deal quality.
Constraints Vary by Property Type and Investor Profile
Multifamily respondents most often cite a lack of suitable opportunities (29%), while retail respondents point to bid-ask spreads (46%). Private equity respondents cite bid-ask spreads; developers and owner-operators are more constrained by the cost of debt.
How Active Are Investors, and Which Sectors Are Transacting?
Over the past 12 months, 39% of respondents completed an acquisition, 20% evaluated opportunities without transacting, and 22% reported no CRE activity. Activity varies sharply by sector:
- Retail: the most active buyers, with roughly 56% completing an acquisition.
- Multifamily: active but selective; 93% transacted or evaluated deals, and 33% evaluated without closing.
- Industrial: patient; 63% reported no transaction activity.
- Regional divide: West Coast investors remain highly skeptical of pricing, while the Northeast could see more activity despite persistent bid-ask spreads.
Which Operating Costs Are Rising Fastest for Property Owners?
Insurance and property taxes are rising fastest, each cited by about 27% of investors, ahead of utilities (16%), maintenance (15%), and wages (15%). Multifamily owners point to insurance, retail owners to taxes, and industrial owners to taxes and labor.
What Do Investors Expect From the Fed, Cap Rates, and Transaction Volume?
Federal Reserve Rate Expectations for Year-End 2026
51% expect a rate hike, 33% expect no change, and 16% expect a cut. Even so, 49% see 2027 as the best time to buy (21% say H1 2027 and 28% say H2 2027), suggesting the next buying window may be shaped by how the market adjusts to elevated rates rather than by rate cuts alone.
Cap Rates and Deal Volume
93% expect cap rates to stay stable (about 67%) or expand (about 27%); just 7% expect compression. Still, nearly 69% expect transaction volume to remain stable or increase. The takeaway: deal activity can improve without cap rate compression, driven by buyers and sellers adjusting to current pricing and financing conditions. For a look at how this plays out in a local market, see our Boston multifamily market report and California multifamily trends.
Are More Investors Planning to Sell?
Yes. 53% of investors are open to selling within the next 12 months, with 30% actively marketing a property and 19% likely to sell. Motivations are mostly strategic, with attractive pricing (17%), portfolio rebalancing (15%), and succession planning (13%) outranking distress. Only about 4% cite loan maturity or refinancing pressure and another 4% capital needs, so forced selling remains limited.
Which Property Sectors Will Perform Best and Worst in H2 2026?
There is no longer a consensus winner. Multifamily dominated 2021–2024, industrial gained momentum in 2025–2026, retail has remained steady, and healthcare and self-storage have been more episodic. Investors tend to be most confident in the sectors they know best.
Office Is Expected to Perform Worst
Office is the clear consensus pick for weakest performer (37.8%), followed by hospitality (24.4%) and multifamily (13.3%). Office faces distress and refinancing pressure, with the CMBS office delinquency rate reaching a record 12.34% in January 2026. Hospitality faces higher debt costs, with nearly 70% of the $18.7 billion in hotel CMBS loans maturing in 2026 carrying floating rates. Multifamily is still working through oversupply, with 38.9% of U.S. rental listings offering a concession.
What Does the 2026 Investor Survey Mean for H2 2026?
- Investors aren’t waiting for a perfect market. 67% still see CRE as overpriced, but only 15% are becoming more conservative.
- Value creation is the priority. Value-add leads both stated strategy and near-term acquisition plans.
- Transaction activity can recover before valuations do. 69% expect stable or higher volume even though 93% expect stable or wider cap rates.
- The next opportunity may come through adjustment, not rate relief. 84% expect rates to hold or rise, yet nearly half see 2027 as the best buying window.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of investors think commercial real estate is overpriced?
About 67% of respondents believe CRE is at least somewhat overpriced, including 24% who say it is significantly overpriced.
What is the most popular CRE investment strategy in 2026?
Value-add, preferred by 39% of respondents and the top acquisition priority for 35% through the rest of 2026.
Do investors expect cap rates to compress in 2026?
No. 93% expect cap rates to remain stable or expand, and only 7% expect compression.
When do investors think is the best time to buy commercial real estate?
49% identify 2027 as the best time to buy, while 16% say the second half of 2026 and 28% are unsure.
Which property type do investors expect to perform worst in H2 2026?
Office, named by 37.8% of respondents, followed by hospitality (24.4%) and multifamily (13.3%).
Download the Full 2026 Investor Survey
Get the complete Matthews™ 2026 Investor Outlook Survey, including sector-level breakdowns, regional insights, and historical trends, by completing the form below. To discuss what these trends mean for your portfolio, connect with a Matthews™ advisor.
