Orange County, CA Multifamily Market Report Q3 2026

Likely Merger Lifts Q3 Volume 12.7x; Vacancy Holds at 3.4%

Demand

Orange County absorbed 1,185 units in Q3 2026, against -69 in the same quarter last year. Vacancy is 3.4%, 8 bps tighter than Q3 2025. Fullerton/Buena Park is the tightest submarket at 2.9% vacancy; Newport/Laguna/San Clemente leads rent growth at +3.4%. Trailing-12-month absorption of 3,070 units matched the prior 12 months (3,067).

Supply

Orange County recorded 668 units of completions in Q3 and 2,930 over the trailing twelve months (+19% versus the prior TTM period). Units under construction equal 3.5% of inventory, concentrated in Irvine at 10.2% of its stock. Annual completions peaked at 5,299 units in 2008. The 9,702-unit pipeline equals about twelve and a half quarters of absorption at the trailing pace.

Investment Market

Orange County recorded $5.2B in sales over the trailing twelve months, +236% against the prior TTM period; Q3 accounted for $4.15B. The high-water mark in this series is $4.7B in 2026. Q3 volume is 12.7 times the prior four-quarter average and likely reflects entity-level activity from the AvalonBay and Equity Residential merger, which also sets the 2026 high. Read volume as directional. CoStar records $1.00B for Q3; on that count trailing volume would be $2.0B.

Orange County cap rates average 4.74%, up for 19 straight quarters. Pricing sits at $385k per unit.