The U.S. retail industry in 2026 reflects a major shift in consumer behavior. Shoppers continue to spend, but they are making far more intentional decisions about where and how they spend their money. Retailers that deliver value, convenience, and strong customer experiences are gaining momentum, while brands that rely on outdated models are struggling to keep pace.

 

Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, the National Retail Federation expects U.S. retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026, reaching approximately $5.6 trillion. That growth rate exceeds the retail industry’s 10-year average of 3.6%, signaling that consumer spending remains resilient even as shoppers become more selective.

Value Retail Continues to Lead

Value-focused retailers continue to dominate the market in 2026. Consumers across nearly every income level are paying closer attention to pricing, which has driven strong performance for warehouse clubs, discount retailers, and off-price chains.

 

Retailers like Walmart, Costco, TJ Maxx, and Ross Stores continue to attract shoppers who want affordability without sacrificing convenience or product selection. Private-label products are also gaining popularity as consumers look for lower-cost alternatives that still offer quality and reliability.

 

This trend is strong enough that discount and value retailers are expanding aggressively across the country. Dollar General alone plans to open 450 new stores in 2026, while Aldi plans to open 180 new U.S. locations.

 

At the same time, consumer sentiment remains cautious. Recent retail research showed consumer sentiment dropped to 53.3 in March 2026, its lowest level in more than two years, reinforcing why shoppers continue prioritizing deals and value-based purchases.

Convenience Shapes the Shopping Experience

Convenience remains one of the biggest drivers of retail growth this year. Consumers increasingly expect flexible shopping options that save time and reduce friction.

 

Buy Online, Pick Up In Store services continue to grow as shoppers take advantage of curbside pickup, same-day fulfillment, and simplified returns. Many retailers are turning physical stores into fulfillment hubs that support both ecommerce orders and in-store shoppers.

 

Ecommerce also continues gaining market share. Online retail now accounts for roughly 16.4% of total U.S. retail sales, with ecommerce sales surpassing $1.2 trillion in 2025 and continuing to grow in 2026. Nonstore retailers remain one of the fastest-growing segments in the market, posting nearly 11% year-over-year growth entering 2026.

 

Retailers that streamline the customer experience are building stronger loyalty and encouraging repeat purchases.

Wellness Spending Continues to Grow

Health and wellness continue to influence purchasing decisions across multiple retail categories, with consumers increasingly prioritizing products and services that support healthier lifestyles, longevity, energy, and overall well-being. What was once a niche category has evolved into a broader lifestyle movement that is materially changing retail merchandising strategies and center tenant composition.

 

Functional beverages, protein-rich snacks, supplements, and clean-label food products continue to perform well in grocery and wellness retail. Beauty and personal care brands are also seeing increased demand for products tied to self-care, recovery, and holistic wellness routines. Consumers are increasingly seeking convenient, everyday access to wellness-oriented offerings, creating opportunities for retailers across food, beauty, fitness, and healthcare categories.

 

This shift is also influencing how shopping centers curate tenant lineups. Landlords are allocating more space to wellness-oriented concepts that drive recurring visits, longer dwell times, and daily-use traffic patterns. Traditional soft goods retailers are increasingly being complemented, and in some cases replaced, by tenants such as boutique fitness studios, med spas, IV therapy providers, recovery concepts, healthy fast-casual restaurants, specialty grocers, supplement retailers, and wellness-focused beauty brands.

 

Centers with a strong wellness ecosystem are benefiting from increased cross-shopping synergies, as consumers often combine fitness, health services, dining, and grocery trips into a single visit. This trend is particularly attractive for open-air and neighborhood centers, where convenience and service-based tenancy support more frequent visitation.

 

Retailers that expand wellness-focused assortments, and landlords that curate complementary wellness-driven tenant mixes, are connecting with consumers who increasingly view health-conscious shopping as part of their everyday lifestyle rather than a discretionary purchase category.

Retailers Continue Investing in Technology

Retailers continue investing in technology and operational efficiency to remain competitive in 2026, particularly as labor costs, supply chain management, and consumer expectations continue to evolve.

 

Much of that investment is focused on:

• inventory optimization
•  personalized marketing
• fulfillment efficiency
• customer analytics
• automated operations

Retailers that improve efficiency while delivering seamless customer experiences are gaining an advantage in an increasingly competitive environment.

Department Stores Continue to Face Pressure

Traditional department stores continue to struggle as consumers shift toward retailers that offer clearer value and more efficient shopping experiences.

 

Declining mall traffic, rising operating costs, and increased competition from ecommerce and specialty retailers continue to pressure legacy department store models. Many consumers now prefer retailers that offer faster fulfillment, curated assortments, and stronger digital experiences.

 

The broader retail industry is also seeing significant consolidation and store closures. More than 8,000 U.S. chain stores closed in 2025, and closures have continued into 2026 as retailers prioritize profitability and operational efficiency over rapid expansion.

Big-Ticket Purchases Slow Down

Consumers are becoming more cautious with large discretionary purchases in 2026. Categories like furniture, appliances, and home improvement products are seeing softer demand as shoppers delay expensive purchases.

 

Higher interest rates and slower housing activity continue to impact spending across home-related retail sectors. Many consumers are prioritizing essentials, travel, and smaller purchases instead of making significant investments in home goods.

 

Retailers that depend heavily on large-ticket purchases are feeling the effects of this slowdown.

Mid-Tier Apparel Faces Increased Competition

Mid-tier apparel retailers continue to face mounting pressure as consumers either trade down to value-focused brands or spend more selectively on premium labels with strong brand loyalty. Retailers in the mid-tier segment, including brands such as Gap, American Eagle, Express, J.Crew, and Banana Republic, are finding it increasingly difficult to differentiate themselves in a highly competitive landscape.

 

Fast fashion competition and shifting consumer preferences have made it increasingly challenging for traditional mall-based apparel retailers to stand out. Shoppers are placing greater emphasis on value, versatility, and quality rather than impulse-driven fashion purchases. Additionally, off-price retailers and digitally native brands continue to capture market share by offering either stronger pricing or more distinct brand positioning.

 

Brands with a clear identity, differentiated product offering, and loyal customer base continue to outperform retailers with unclear positioning or inconsistent merchandising strategies. As a result, many landlords are reevaluating apparel-heavy tenant mixes and increasingly prioritizing experiential, service-oriented, and necessity-based tenants that generate more consistent traffic patterns.

The Bottom Line

Retail in 2026 centers around value, convenience, and adaptability. Consumers want affordable pricing, seamless shopping experiences, and products that align with their priorities and lifestyles.

 

Even as economic uncertainty continues, consumer spending remains relatively strong. Higher-income households continue driving a significant share of retail growth, while value-conscious shoppers push retailers to compete more aggressively on pricing and convenience.

 

Retailers that respond quickly to changing consumer behavior and continue investing in customer experience are positioning themselves for long-term growth. Those that fail to evolve risk losing relevance in an increasingly competitive retail environment.