Retail Consumer Trends Report
The U.S. Retail Market at a Glance
The Big Picture
Source: Matthews™ Research | 2025, 2026
- U.S. Retail Sales: $8.70T
- Annual Growth: 2.4% YOY
- Retail Sales Occur In-Store: 84%
- Retail Vacancy Rate: 4.4%
Retail isn’t slowing; it’s resetting.
Consumer spending remains resilient, driving nearly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, while retail fundamentals are supported by limited new supply and steady demand. The result? A market that is defined less by volatility and more by selective strength.
Retail Resilience
Retail vacancy remains near historic lows at 4.4% as of Q1 2026, with grocery-anchored centers even tighter at 4.0%, significantly outperforming non-anchored retail recording 6.3%. Demand is strongest where retail aligns with daily needs, convenience, and local demographics, creating a durable foundation for long-term performance.
The Evolution of Consumer Retail Spending
Source: Matthews™ Research | 2025
Value-oriented shopping is becoming structural rather than cyclical, with consumers continuing to prioritize affordability and convenience, despite stabilizing economic conditions.
Spending Patterns Are Evolving
Monthly retail sales are currently tracking at approximately $733B+ per month for 2026, reflecting sustained consumer activity despite a more selective spending environment.
Where Dollars Are Going:
- Food & Beverage: $100B/Month
- One of the largest spending buckets in retail in January 2026.
- Health & Personal Care: $40.1B monthly retail sales
- Heath and personal care spending continues to expand, supported by recurring demand and service-based consumption.
- Discount/Value Retail: ~$77B monthly sales
- Value-oriented retail is capturing a growing share of consumer spending, particularly in price-sensitive trade areas.
- Services & Experiences: $100B+ monthly sales
- Spending continues to shift toward experience-driven categories.
E-Commerce Growth & Spending Trends:
- E-commerce retail sales reached $310,274, with a 5.1% increase in e-commerce sales YOY.
- E-commerce accounts for ~16.4% of total retail sales.
Where Consumers Are Going | Retail Foot Traffic Trends
Source: Matthews™ Research | 2025, 2026
Retail foot traffic is growing 1.8% annually across the U.S. with stronger gains in Sunbelt and suburban markets. +45% of visits are under 15 minutes, reflecting a consistent trend over the past two years. This comes as consumers favor short, mission-based trips, and omnichannel behaviors such as online ordering and in-store pickup. Visit frequency is highest in grocery, dining, and value retail.
Where Traffic Is Strongest
Performance is increasingly tied to location, density, and demographic alignment, rather than overall market size.
Sunbelt Markets (TX, FL, AZ, Southeast)
- Leading U.S. population growth markets
- Driving above-average retail visitation and store expansion
Suburban Trade Areas
- Strongest traffic in outer-ring and suburban locations
- Grocery-anchored centers generate 2-3x higher weekly visit frequency than non-anchored centers
Lower- to Middle-Income Trade Areas
- Majority of visits concentrated in household under $75K income which account for 60%+ of total retail trips in many suburban and neighborhoods centers
- Strong traffic across grocery, discount retail, and essential services
Retail Outlook: A Market Driven by Precision
Retail is no longer defined by broad growth, but by where and how demand is captured. Strong performance is concentrated in high-growth markets, particularly across the Sunbelt and suburban trade areas, where population inflows and proximity to consumers drive consistent traffic.
At the same time, necessity-based, value-oriented, and experience-driven retail formats continue to outperform, supported by frequent visitation and recurring spend. As consumer behavior becomes more intentional and convenience-focused, success in retail will depend on alignment with local demographics, tenant mix, and the ability to capture everyday demand.
