The U.S. self-storage sector in early 2026 is in a clear stabilization phase, following two years of supply-driven pressure.

 

Advertised/street rates nationally stand at $16.27 per square foot annualized (blended main unit types). This rate is down 0.2% year-over-year according to the February 2026 Yardi Matrix National Report, reflecting data through end-January.

 

Occupancy remains bifurcated, as REIT portfolios average rates from 84% to roughly 93%, while private/CMBS assets lag at ~82% on average according to TractIQ’s Q3 Occupancy Report.

 

REIT Portfolios Occupancy Trends

• NSA: 84.0% (end of Q4)
• CubeSmart: 88.6%
• SmartStop: 92.3%
• PSA: 91.0%
• Extra Space: 92.5%

 

Supply headwinds are persistent yet moderating, with 2.5% of existing inventory under construction nationally, down 0.1% month-over-month.

 

Demand Drivers & Demographic Trends

Demand fundamentals have cooled materially. According to recent Census data, U.S. population growth slowed to just 0.5%, accounting for roughly 1.2 million people, from July 2024 to July 2025, reflecting the weakest pace since the pandemic.

 

State-to-state migration hit a 12-year low of about 550,000 people, with Florida’s net inflows down 93% from 2022 peaks, and Texas, Georgia, and Arizona each off more than 50%. This migration reset explains the reasoning behind Sunbelt rents experiencing sharp negative rates, while Midwest and Northeast metros posted modest gains.

 

Sunbelt vs Midwest & Northeast Year-Over-Year Rents

Source: Yardi Matrix | As of Q4 2025

 

National home sales also remain subdued, with only 4.06 million existing homes sold in the last two years, in comparison to at least 5.3 million homes sold per year between 2016 and 2022.

 

2025: Year in Review

Supply dynamics dominated 2025 performance. Early quarters showed continued deterioration from record-high deliveries in 2023 and 2024. However, Q4 delivered clear sequential improvement across the REIT cohort.

 

Same-store revenue growth improved marginally: NSA posted -0.7% in Q4 (in comparison to -2.6% in Q3), CubeSmart -0.1%, SmartStop 0.4%, PSA -0.2%, and Extra Space 0.4%. Realized rents reflected the pressure with the national average settling at $16.27 per square foot. Institutional operators continue to command a significant pricing premium, with Public

 

Storage reporting realized rents of $22.53 per square foot nationally, although exposure to weaker Sunbelt markets moderated overall portfolio performance.

 

Private operators have experienced more pronounced operational challenges. Storable’s report focusing on the South indicates realized rental rates ranging between $12.80 and $13.50 per square foot, alongside more aggressive promotional activity including 1 to 1.5 months half-off concessions.

 

Balance-sheet strength remained a bright spot across the sector in 2025. REIT leverage stayed conservative, averaging 4.2–4.8x net debt to EBITDA, with Public Storage at 4.2x and CubeSmart at 4.8x, while both maintained substantial liquidity positions ($2.4B at PSA and $1.2B at CubeSmart). SmartStop also benefited from geographic diversification, with its 49-store Canadian portfolio providing stability and consistent NOI growth.

 

Overall, 2025 marked the sector’s trough as operating fundamentals began to stabilize. Occupancy gaps narrowed sequentially (NSA closed another 70 basis points in Q4), move-ins turned net positive in most markets, and advanced revenue management tools, including AI-driven pricing at CubeSmart and Public Storage, started to gain traction.

 

H1 2026: Gradual Recovery with Regional Divergence

The next six months point to continued stabilization and modest upside, supported by easing supply and early 2026 momentum signals. According to Yardi’s Q1 2026 Supply Forecast, national completions are expected to further decline, with the pace of new deliveries slowing most noticeably in previously overbuilt Sunbelt markets such as Atlanta, Tampa, Phoenix, and Orlando. The Radius+ 2026 Forecast reinforces this view, describing the current environment as a market “reset,” with moderating supply conditions expected to help stabilize rents and potentially return growth to positive territory by mid-year.

 

REIT guidance reflects cautious optimism, with most operators expecting modest improvement as supply pressures ease. CubeSmart projects same-store revenue growth of 0.5% to 2.0% (midpoint +1.25%) and FFO of $2.52–$2.60 per share. National Storage Affiliates (NSA) guides Core FFO of $2.13–$2.25 per share, with the midpoint slightly lower due to refinancing and insurance pressures, while still projecting same-store revenue growth of roughly +0.9% at the midpoint. Public Storage (PSA) issued the most conservative outlook, guiding same-store revenue between -2.2% and 0.0%, citing lingering softness across certain Sunbelt markets, though management highlighted potential upside from its “PS 4.0” digital and AI-driven initiatives. SmartStop provided the strongest growth outlook, targeting 1% to 2.5% revenue and NOI growth alongside 5% to 8% FFO growth, supported by its expanding managed platform, now 221 third-party stores, as well as continued tailwinds from its Canadian portfolio.

 

Rental activity trends should inflect positively in H1. Early improving move-in rates at Extra Space and NSA are starting to emerge, and national street rates are forecast to flatten or turn slightly positive by Q2 as concessions ease. Storable Pulse for the South shows discounts and move-in specials slowly decreasing.

 

Transaction velocity in 2026 is also expected to exceed 2025 levels as the acquisition and disposition environment becomes more favorable and buyers gain greater clarity around rental rates and near-term operating performance.