Why Florida and the Carolinas Are Leading Retail Resilience

Retail fundamentals continue to hold steady across the United States, supported by limited development and consistent demand for well-located space. National vacancy remains near 5%, while constrained construction has helped preserve occupancy and modest rent growth. Within this environment, several Florida and Carolina metros are outperforming the broader market.

 

Florida’s strength largely reflects its combination of population growth, tight availability, and minimal new supply. Miami-Dade ended 2025 with retail vacancy near 3%, well below the national average, while inventory is projected to expand by only 0.2% in 2026. Fort Lauderdale is forecast to record 2.8% asking rent growth as available space becomes more limited.

 

Conditions also remain tight across Central Florida. Tampa and Orlando are projected to maintain vacancy rates of 4.1% and 4.4%, respectively, with both markets expected to produce additional rent growth during 2026.

 

Carolina metros are benefiting from similar dynamics. Population gains, employment growth, and disciplined development have supported strong retail performance in Charleston, Raleigh-Durham, and Charlotte.

 

Charleston is forecast to maintain a 3.3% vacancy rate and generate 3.1% rent growth in 2026. Raleigh-Durham is expected to hold vacancy near 3%, while Charlotte’s vacancy rate could decline to 3.5%. Charlotte is also projected to lead the group with 4.7% rent growth after years of limited inventory expansion.

 

These markets demonstrate how constrained supply can strengthen retail performance even when the broader economic outlook is mixed. For investors, the strongest opportunities may be found in established corridors where new construction remains difficult and expanding populations continue to support tenant demand.

 

Market-level strength does not eliminate the importance of asset selection. Tenant quality, access, visibility, surrounding demographics, and the ability to adapt space will continue to shape performance. However, Florida and the Carolinas offer a clear example of how favorable demographics and limited development can reinforce the long-term value of well-positioned retail real estate.